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Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Obama's Worst Nightmare... (Updated and bumped)

... Oil prices decline. His Saudi masters will not be pleased.

Update: His masters are not pleased. The Financial Times reports:
A Saudi billionaire investor has sounded the alarm over the potential impact of falling oil prices on the Gulf kingdom’s economy. 
In an open letter to Saudi ministers posted via Twitter, Prince Alwaleed bin Talal al-Saud expressed his “astonishment” at comments made by Ali al-Naimi, the oil minister, who reportedly played down the impact of oil prices falling below $100 a barrel. Prices have since fallen below $88 a barrel, or a quarter since June. 
Prince Alwaleed, noting the kingdom’s 2014 budget was 90 per cent dependent on oil revenues, said belittling the impact of lower prices was a “catastrophe that cannot go unmentioned”. 
... His public broadside against the veteran oil minister came as analysts said the Gulf members of Opec, the oil producers’ cartel, led by Saudi Arabia, seem prepared to drive down oil prices to retain market share and fend off the threat of rising US production, despite the risks to their hydrocarbon-dependent economies. 
“Saudi thinking has to be that lower prices are not so bad and Gulf states can cope, either by cutting spending or dipping into reserves or borrowing,” said Robin Mills of Manaar Energy Consulting. “$100 a barrel is too high – you get weak demand growth, so maybe if it cools off to around $80, the shale boom cools off and you get more reasonable demand.” 
Gulf oil producers, most of which have large cash reserves, seem to be betting that the short-term pain of declining oil revenues from lower prices will close off competing supplies and revive the lowest global oil demand since 2009. 
Oil prices are reaching levels that, if sustained, threaten the ability of some Gulf states to meet domestic spending commitments, forcing a drawdown on reserves or debt issuance.
Saudi Arabia needed an oil price of $89 a barrel in 2013 to balance the budget, up from a “fiscal break-even” of $78 a barrel in 2012, according to the International Monetary Fund.
 
But Riyadh’s regional political rivals, such as Iran and Iraq, as well as other Opec members such as Venezuela, have much higher fiscal break-evens.

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